Welcome to the first regular issue of OMB Property Digest. With the Autumn Budget now only four weeks away (28 October), much of this fortnight's news is Budget-shaped — from what might happen to the mansion tax and capital gains, to the first detail on the government's new low-deposit scheme for first-time buyers. The Bank of England has held the base rate for a sixth straight time, but the mood among forecasters has shifted from "when will it fall" to "when will it rise," and that's already showing up in mortgage pricing. Here's what it means for each corner of the market.
Homeowners & buyers
- Base rate held at 3.75% for a sixth time — but the "mood music" has turned upward. The MPC voted 6-3 on 17 September to hold, with three members pushing for a rise to 4%; markets are now pricing a first hike as soon as November 2026, with some forecasts pointing to three rises by March 2027.
- Fixed rates are already ahead of the base rate story. Lenders' fixed-rate pricing is already reflecting expected rises, and standard variable rates remain well above typical fixed deals, so reviewing your options well before a deal ends can make a real difference to your monthly payments.
- "Your First Home" scheme detail is due at the Budget. The new low-deposit route for first-time buyers on new-build homes — a 2.5% deposit alongside a 20% government equity loan — gets its implementation specifics on 28 October.
Takeaway: if you're on your lender's SVR, or your deal matures in the next few months, it's worth locking in a fixed rate now rather than waiting — pricing may only get less favourable as rate-rise expectations build.
Buy-to-let landlords
- Renters' Rights Act nerves are easing, four months in. Paragon/Mortgage Advice Bureau research shows the share of landlords expecting a negative impact has fallen from 76% to 69% since the Act took effect on 1 May; MAB alone arranged 6,790 buy-to-let mortgages worth over £1bn in that period.
- The Budget could still move the goalposts on higher-value portfolios. The Treasury is reportedly modelling a lower £1.5m threshold (from £2m) for the high-value council tax surcharge, plus possible capital gains tax alignment with income tax — neither is confirmed, with a decision due 28 October.
- Lenders haven't tightened up despite the Act. Underwriting standards have held steady through the transition, with portfolio landlords managing the new rules through operational changes rather than facing lending restrictions.
Takeaway: if your portfolio includes higher-value properties, get a tax and mortgage structure review done before Budget day — so there's time to act on whatever's actually confirmed, rather than reacting afterwards.
Property developers
- A £16bn National Housing Bank is opening up SME development lending. It's designed to fill the gap left as small builders' share of UK completions has fallen from around 40% four decades ago to just 10–12% today.
- Planning is being simplified for "Medium Sites." Schemes of 10–49 homes get streamlined rules, aimed squarely at a stalled SME pipeline — 94% of smaller developers cite planning delays as a major barrier to growth.
- Fresh development finance capital is landing too. LendInvest and HSBC have launched a £175m flexible SME funding partnership, even as construction tender prices are still forecast to rise around 3% this year, keeping viability tight against capped exit values.
Takeaway: if a site has stalled on viability or planning, it's worth revisiting now — new planning routes and fresh lending capital may make numbers work that didn't stack up six months ago.
Commercial property & retail
- Investment is holding up at £24.3bn year-to-date, slightly ahead of 2025's pace, with London taking £9.2bn of that and international buyers now 46% of transaction volumes.
- Industrial and hotels are the standout sectors. Industrial investment hit £1.2bn in July alone, while hotel investment has already passed £2.8bn year-to-date — more than double the same period in 2025.
- Retail keeps softening while prime offices outperform. Retail investment slipped to £350m in July from £490m in June, while London office take-up ran 4% above its ten-year average in Q2 — concentrated in prime, ESG-compliant space.
Takeaway: weight new commercial exposure toward industrial/logistics and hospitality assets, and prioritise EPC/ESG-compliant office stock — retail remains the segment to approach with the most caution on current pricing.
To talk through what this means for you, contact us or call 0203 971 1234.
Important: This guide is general information, not personal advice. Rules, rates and lender criteria change; speak to an adviser about your circumstances. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.