Something unexpected is happening in the mortgage market this autumn. The buyers everyone assumed would be first to retreat are, in fact, holding their ground. New analysis from Yorkshire Building Society, published 14 October 2026, shows first-time buyer mortgage applications fell just 3.5% between late June and late September compared with the same period last year — from 123,149 to 118,881. Home mover applications fell much further, down 10.2%, from 108,844 to 97,732.
The twist is in the remortgage numbers. While buyers hesitate, existing borrowers are moving fast: remortgage applications rose 12% year on year, from 102,424 to 114,717, as homeowners act early to lock in a new deal ahead of their renewal date. It is not hard to see why, with the average two-year fixed rate at 5.98% and the average five-year fixed at 6.00% as of 5 October 2026 (Moneyfactscompare), and the Bank of England holding its base rate at 3.75% on 17 September, just ahead of the Autumn Budget on 28 October.
For first-time buyers, the explanation may be simple: with no home to sell and no chain to manage, they are better placed to keep moving while others wait and watch for the Budget. The data points to a market cooling in parts and holding firm in others — not one stalling across the board.
There is a quieter story worth telling alongside the numbers. The FCA’s Pure Protection Market Study, published 21 September 2026, found that 58% of UK adults have no life insurance, critical illness cover or income protection in place — and the regulator is now working with mortgage advisers to make protection a routine part of the mortgage conversation. Taking out or renewing a mortgage is one of the few moments people stop to think about what would happen to their home if their income did — worth raising at the same time as your mortgage, not as an afterthought.
“First-time buyers have no chain to manage and nothing to wait on — that may be exactly why they are still moving.”
At a glance
- Applications: First-time buyer mortgage applications down just 3.5% year on year, versus 10.2% for home movers (YBS/CACI, 14 Oct 2026).
- Remortgaging: Remortgage applications up 12% year on year as borrowers lock in early (YBS/CACI, 14 Oct 2026).
- Rates: Average 2-year fixed 5.98%, average 5-year fixed 6.00% (Moneyfactscompare, 5 Oct 2026); Bank Rate held at 3.75% (17 Sept 2026).
- Protection: 58% of UK adults have no life, critical illness or income protection cover in place (FCA Pure Protection Market Study, 21 Sept 2026).
What to do now
- Coming up to a renewal? Start the remortgage conversation around six months out — rates and lender criteria can move quickly either side of the Budget.
- First-time buyer? Get a mortgage in principle in place now, so you can move quickly when the right property comes along.
- Moving home? Build in a realistic timeline — the data suggests more chains are taking longer to complete this autumn.
- Whatever stage you’re at, ask about protection alongside your mortgage — advice on life insurance, critical illness and income protection is available, not just the loan.
Sources
- Yorkshire Building Society / CACI mortgage application data, reported 14 October 2026
- Moneyfactscompare, average mortgage rates, 5 October 2026
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee decision, 17 September 2026
- Financial Conduct Authority, Pure Protection Market Study, 21 September 2026
To talk through what this means for you, start your enquiry or contact us.
Important: This guide is general information, not personal advice. Rules, rates and lender criteria change; speak to an adviser about your circumstances. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.